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Fear & Greed

69

Greed

Market Sentiment

Event Calendar

{{年份}}
08
04
upgrade Solana Firedancer

Independent validator client goes live on mainnet

18
03
unlock Sui Token Unlock

Team and early investor shares released

12
05
halving BCH Halving

Block reward halving event

28
03
unlock Arbitrum Token Unlock

92 million ARB released

22
03
unlock Optimism Unlock

Circulating supply increases by about 2%

30
04
upgrade Celestia Mainnet Upgrade

Improves data availability sampling efficiency

15
04
halving Bitcoin Halving

Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC

10
05
upgrade Ethereum Pectra Upgrade

Raises validator limit and account abstraction

Altseason Index

42

Bitcoin Season

BTC Dominance Altseason

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Arbitrum 0.5 Gwei
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1
Bitcoin
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1
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1
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1
BNB Chain
BNB
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1
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XRP
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1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0799
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1951
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$7.25
1
Polkadot
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1
Chainlink
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$10.93

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Analysis

Hyperliquid's Lobbying Push: The Silent War Between Code and Compliance

Cobietoshi

I map the silence between the code and the chaos. In the quiet corridors of Washington, a lobbying campaign is unfolding that could reshape the quietest frontier of crypto: the perpetual futures market. Hyperliquid, the self-built L1 powering the most liquid on-chain order book, is now seeking a bridge to the only ledger that truly matters—the one recognized by the SEC and CFTC.

This is not a technical upgrade. It is a narrative shift. And in the wild west of crypto, stories are the only compass.

Context: The Ghost of Unregulated Derivatives

Since 2022, the US regulatory landscape has been a graveyard for unregistered perpetual futures. The CFTC’s action against Binance set a precedent: any retail commodity transaction on a margin basis must occur on a registered Designated Contract Market (DCM) or Swap Execution Facility (SEF). dYdX managed to secure a no-action letter in 2024, but only after moving to its own Cosmos chain and implementing basic KYC. Hyperliquid, with its closed-loop ecosystem of HyperEVM, on-chain order book, and native HLP vault, has remained a fortress—fast, anonymous, and inaccessible to US users.

Now, the fortress is opening its gates. The news broke via Crypto Briefing: Hyperliquid is lobbying to offer perpetual futures on a US-regulated blockchain. The signal is deliberate. The narrative is being planted.

Core Analysis: The Narrative Mechanism of ‘Regulated Blockchain’

The phrase “regulated blockchain” is a masterclass in narrative ambiguity. It does not mean Hyperliquid will migrate its entire liquidity to a permissioned chain—that would be economic suicide. Instead, it suggests a multi-layered compliance integration: (1) regulated stablecoin settlement, (2) on-chain KYC/AML modules, and (3) a partnership with a CFTC-registered Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO). This is the path of least resistance, where the core L1 remains autonomous, but a compliance wrapper is added at the application layer.

From my years tracking DeFi sentiment—I once spent three months embedded in Golem’s ICO community to map the emotional arc of “decentralized cloud computing”—I recognize this pattern. The narrative is being sold as a technical evolution, but it is actually a political one. The real story is not about code, but about trust. Hyperliquid is betting that the US market will reward a protocol that can prove it is not a shadowy exchange.

Based on my audit experience, the technical feasibility is high. The team, led by ex-Citadel Securities trader Jeff Yan, has already built a high-performance L1 capable of tens of thousands of TPS. Adding a regulatory layer is a matter of smart contract design and oracle integration, not a fundamental redesign. The risk is not technical—it is temporal. Lobbying cycles are long, and the market’s attention span is short.

Contrarian Angle: The Deeper Risk of Anonymity

Here is the silence that the data cannot speak. Hyperliquid’s core team remains partially anonymous. While Jeff Yan is known, the broader development and governance structure is opaque. In the eyes of US regulators, anonymity is not a feature—it is a liability. The CFTC requires clear lines of accountability. The SEC’s Howey test, when applied to HYPE tokens, raises three red flags: profit expectation from a common enterprise, reliance on the efforts of others, and a lack of sufficient decentralization in the validator set. The lobbying effort might be a double-edged sword: it could expose past US user access through VPNs, triggering enforcement actions before any compliance framework is in place.

Truth hides in the bear market’s quiet shadows. The market has priced in a 5-15% rally on the news, but the real question is whether Hyperliquid can survive the scrutiny that comes with seeking a license. dYdX’s no-action letter was a success, but it also required months of legal restructuring and public disclosure. Hyperliquid’s anonymous structure may not survive the same process.

Takeaway: The Next Narrative is Not ‘Compliance’—It’s ‘Regulatory DeFi’

The narrative is the only immutable ledger. If Hyperliquid succeeds, it will not just be a victory for one protocol—it will create a template for a new asset class: regulated DeFi derivatives. The next cycle will be defined by protocols that can bridge the gap between on-chain transparency and off-chain legal trust. For now, the message is clear: the wild west is ending, and the settlers are building walls of compliance. I hunt for the story that the data cannot speak—and this one, still unfolding, is written in the silence between a lobbying memo and a market’s hope.